Titans vs Jaguars: Week 3 Primer

One step forward, two steps back.

And thus continues the roller coaster that this Titans team has been with Marcus Mariota under center. After a promising showing in Week 1, the Titans, and more specifically the offense, seemed confused and not able to adapt to what the Colts were doing Sunday, resulting in a 17-19 loss. I’m sure by this point you’ve heard enough about Sunday’s defeat, but I just wanted to point out a stat that exemplifies the inconsistencies under Mariota, and to me, the reason this team hasn’t been able to get over the 9-7 hump the last three seasons.

In the NFL, a quarterback rating of 90 is pretty average, with a 158.3 being the perfect rating. For reference, Mariota finished Sunday’s game with a 93.5 rating, and I think we can all agree he didn’t play particularly well.

Just to warn you, I’m going to throw some numbers at you real quick. In his 58 career games, Mariota has finished with a rating of 90 or higher 26 times. In the games following a 90+ rating, Mariota has a 10-15 record. Out of those 26 games with a 90+ passer rating, Mariota’s rating got worse 19 times the following week. And not just by a little bit. The average margin of decrease in his career is 58.8 points.

Now, I know I just threw a bunch of numbers at you, but the main gist is this: the only thing consistent about Mariota is his inconsistency.

Mariota is either great, with a rating in the 130s, or aggressively average in the 60s or 70s, and I doubt that will change in year five for the Titans’ quarterback. As long as Mariota is under center, Titans fans can expect some week like Week 1 against the Browns, just as long as they’re mentally prepared to see games like Sunday’s matchup against the Colts to follow.

But enough of Week 2. Let’s look forward to Week 3, when the Titans take on another division rival on Thursday night in Jacksonville.

Game Info

Tennessee Titans (-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Game Time: 7:20 CDT

Location: Jacksonville, FL (TIAA Field)

TV: NFL Network/ WZTV FOX 17

TV Broadcast Crew: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Kristina Pink

Radio: Titans Radio, 104-5 The Zone

Radio Broadcast Crew: Mike Keith, Dave McGinnis, Amie Wells, Jonathan Hutton, Rhett Bryan

Over/ Under: 39

My Prediction: Titans 17, Jaguars 14

Jaguars Offseason Moves

This season was supposed to be the year Jacksonville made a run back to the AFC Championship, a feat they accomplished in 2017 despite having Blake Bortles at quarterback. After a disappointing 2018 campaign, the Jaguars finally moved on from Bortles and signed Nick Foles, the leader of the magical Super Bowl run for the Eagles in 2017. Foles brought with him a feeling of stability at the quarterback position the Jaguars haven’t had since Byron Leftwich left in 2006.

That feeling lasted precisely two drives, right up until Foles broke his collarbone. Gardner Minshew, a sixth-round pick in April’s draft, is now leading the offense, and looks better than most sixth-round rookies typically look in their first NFL action. The Jags fell just a two-point conversion short of upsetting the Texans in Week 2, and they’ll look to complete the upset this week against the Titans.

Key Offseason Departures: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE), Blake Bortles (QB), Carlos Hyde (RB), Donte Moncrief (WR), Ereck Flowers (RT), Malik Jackson (DT), TJ Yeldon (RB)

Key Offseason Additions: Chris Conley (WR), Datone Jones (DT), Alfred Blue (RB), Josh Allen (rookie, DE), Jawaan Taylor (rookie, OT), Gardner Minshew (rookie, QB)

Titans Injury News

On a short week, there were quite a few guys placed on the initial injury report Monday, including Marcus Mariota (quad), but most guys worked their way back to full participation in practice by the final injury report.

-RB David Fluellen will miss his second straight week with a hamstring injury suffered last week in practice.

-RG Kevin Pamphile will also remain out this week with a knee injury. Coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t given a timetable for his return. In the meantime, Jamil Douglas will make his second start of the season at right guard.

-LB Wesley Woodyard popped up on the injury report this week with a quad injury, and will head into Thursday night listed as questionable.

3 Things to Watch For

Derrick Henry Comes Home

Do you think the Jaguars’ defense still has nightmares about December 6th, 2018? Does AJ Bouye wake up in a cold sweat in the middle of the night thinking about Henry’s big paw headed right for his facemask? Most Titans’ fans remember the last meeting between these two teams and the absolute clinic Henry put on. He finished with 238 yards on 17 carries and four touchdowns. It was the beginning of an historic month for Henry, and this Yulee, Florida native will look to capitalize on that fear he instilled last December.

Dean Pees Confusing the Rookie QB

Defensive coordinator is known for the amount of coverages he utilizes and the ability to disguise them before the snap. That was evident in Week 1 against the Browns, when Baker Mayfield looked confused and out of rhythm. He’ll look to employ the same strategy this week against the rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew, whose strength seems to be his accuracy, posting a 77 percent completion percentage in his first two NFL games.

Third Down Issues

So far through two games this season, the Titans are 2 for 20 on converting third downs. For you non-math majors out there, that’s a measly 10 percent conversion rate. That’s pitiful. Vrabel said this week that the problem is coming on first and second down, not being able to stay ahead of the sticks and put themselves in manageable situations on third down. Look for Vrabel and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to hit on quick passes and screens to try and help the offense stay in short yardage situations on third down.

 

By Matt Gray (104-5 The Zone)

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